The patterns of macroscopic growth of 20 first generation human tumor xenografts (16 renal cell carcinomas and 4 squamous cell carcinomas of the head and neck region) were studied with the recursion formula of the Gompertz function. This method enables the characterization of each tumor growth pattern by two parameters: (i) parameter a, which correlates with the starting growth rate of the tumor and (ii) parameter b, which is a measure of the intensity of growth deceleration as a function of tumor growth. A statistically significant prediction of the establishment of a xeno-transplantation line after serial subpassaging (in 9/20 tumors) according to the characteristics of first passage growth curves (p<0. 01) is reported. Especially parameter b, the value of the growth deceleration, highly correlates with serial growth: tumors showing less growth deceleration (higher b-values) during first passage more frequently develop into transplantation lines. On the contrary line development could not be predicted on the basis of the a-values of the first passage growth curves alone (p=0.137). This observation adds to the accumulating evidence, that the process of tumor growth deceleration is a pivotal parameter of tumor biology. Moreover, the present evaluation substantially reduces the time needed to assay serial growth of tumor xenografts for prognostic purposes making this assay potentially more attractive for clinical use.

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