Prediction of outcome following paraquat poisoning by arterial lactate concentration‑time data

Sun,Liang; Li,Guo‑Qiang; Yan,Peng‑Bo; Liu,Yang; Li,Guo‑Feng; Wei,Lu‑Qing

doi:10.3892/etm.2014.1773

August-2014 Volume 8 Issue 2

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August-2014 Volume 8 Issue 2

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Article

Prediction of outcome following paraquat poisoning by arterial lactate concentration‑time data

Authors:
- Liang Sun
- Guo‑Qiang Li
- Peng‑Bo Yan
- Yang Liu
- Guo‑Feng Li
- Lu‑Qing Wei
View Affiliations / Copyright

Affiliations: Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Pingjin Hospital, Logistics University of the Chinese People's Armed Police Forces, Tianjin 300162, P.R. China
Pages: 652-656
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Published online on: June 11, 2014

https://doi.org/10.3892/etm.2014.1773
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Abstract

The present study retrospectively analyzed 170 patients diagnosed with paraquat (PQ) poisoning with the aim of clarifying whether the arterial lactate‑time (arterial lactate concentration x time between ingestion and arterial lactate measurement) was a good predictor of mortality in patients with acute PQ poisoning. The results indicated that there was a positive correlation between the arterial lactate‑time and PQ concentration‑time (ρ=0.485). In addition, the arterial lactate‑time data exhibited a similar discriminative power to the plasma PQ concentration‑time data (z=0.712; P=0.864). For the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the lactate‑time data had an area of 0.782 with a cut‑off value of 11.95 mmol/l.h (sensitivity, 64.52%; specificity, 84.42%). To calculate the predicted probability of survival for any specified time and initial arterial lactate concentration, the following formula was derived based on the logistic regression coefficients: Logit(p) = 3.066 ‑ 0.139 x (time lag following PQ ingestion) ‑ 0.177 x (initial arterial lactate concentration); where the probability of survivors = 1/1 + e‑logit(p). Therefore, the arterial lactate‑time data exhibited a good predictive power for evaluating the prognosis of patients with acute PQ poisoning.

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Journals

International Journal of Molecular Medicine

International Journal of Oncology

Molecular Medicine Reports

Oncology Reports

Experimental and Therapeutic Medicine

Oncology Letters

Biomedical Reports

Molecular and Clinical Oncology

World Academy of Sciences Journal

International Journal of Functional Nutrition

International Journal of Epigenetics

Medicine International

Prediction of outcome following paraquat poisoning by arterial lactate concentration‑time data

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